Commodities Rising

Commodities continue to strengthen across the board.  Over 60% of the commodity tracking ETFs below are now in a Stage 1 base or a Stage 2 uptrend.  Precious metals have gold, silver, and platinum all in Stage 1 bases while palladium is in a Stage 2 uptrend.

Stage Analysis

Ticker Stage Weeks
SLV 1 2
PPLT 1 2
SOYB 1 2
GCC 1 3
GLD 1 3
OIL 1 3
PALL 2 2
JO 2 2
UGA 2 2
UNG 2 11
CHOC 2 29
NLR 2 43
JJC 4 5
KOL 4 9
SGG 4 14
REMX 4 18
CORN 4 58
WEAT 4 62
Stage 1 33.4%
Stage 2 33.4%
Stage 3 0.0%
Stage 4 33.4%


Soft commodities have been one of the weaker parts of the commodities complex, but check out what happened to some of the soft commodity tracking ETFs in February.  The corn ETF had a massive increase in volume for the month and has formed a monthly swing low.


The wheat ETF had its biggest monthly volume ever in February.


Sugar formed a monthly swing low and also had a big increase in volume.


Coffee is one of the hottest markets of 2014.  Coffee has already erased all it’s losses of 2013 in 2 months, and has seen a massive increase in volume coming off of the bear market low.


If sugar, corn, and wheat continue to rally in March, almost the entire commodities complex will be in a bull market.  There’s still a lot of disinterest in this space as well which is the ideal setup for a new bull market to form.

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Commodities Weekly Report

Commodities have been mired in a bear market since 2011 and continued to lose ground in 2013.  But bear markets don’t last forever and commodities will eventually enter into another bull market.  Many have given up on the commodity secular bull market that began around the year 2000.  They have been seduced especially by recent stock market gains in 2013 and given up on commodities since they have sustained losses for multiple years.  This is natural human behavior to chase winners and give up on losers.

The commodity sector is something to monitor though in 2014 since it will be a 3-year old bear market for many commodities.  Bear markets typically don’t last for longer than 2 or 3 years.  The continuous commodity index also looks to still be in a structural bull market even though commodities have pulled back for a few years.

Continue reading “Commodities Weekly Report”