Interview With The Next Bull Market Move On Bitcoin, Gold, And Uranium

I had the pleasure to be part of a year-end interview series on The Next Bull Market Move.  Below is a reprint of the interview, and I would highly recommend checking them out for more upcoming interviews!

Hi Justin, welcome back to The Next Bull Market Move. It’s been a while since we last spoke and as it’s nearing the end of the year I thought it would be great to get your thoughts regarding the markets in 2017. Let’s start with Gold. It looks as though we are still consolidating since the run up we had last year and sentiment is looking bearish. How is Gold looking to you?

Gold is still moving sideways right on top of its 30-week moving average. The gold stocks are acting slightly weaker than gold if you take a look at GDX or GDXJ.  They are both trading more below their 30-week moving average than gold.

Silver is also acting weaker than gold which typically isn’t a good sign. One thing I have noticed is how the volume has collapsed in GDX and GDXJ as this consolidation has dragged on.  That can be a bullish sign as volatility and volume often collapse before a market moves higher, especially for a market that has been basing for a while like gold and gold stocks.

I’ve been out of gold and gold stocks all year and I don’t see any reason to be in them until we see them move above the 30-week moving average on increased volume in a new Stage 2 breakout.  Until then I’ll keep monitoring the situation.  Certainly we could see things change dramatically at any time.

Let’s move on to Uranium. Over the last few weeks it looks as though the sector wants to break out, your thoughts?

After the Cameco production cut announcement we’ve seen almost all the uranium stocks move above the 30-week moving average on increased volume.  This includes Uranium Participation Corp. which tracks the price of uranium.

I like how the volume in that fund is actually heavier than it was during the breakout in uranium stocks we saw around the same time last year.

We are at the point now where the rubber needs to meet the road in uranium stocks.  We’ve consolidated around the 30-week moving average after the initial breakout.  If this is a real breakout it should start to move higher again over the next couple weeks.

If it doesn’t it will be a higher chance that this a fake breakout and the market will consolidate sideways for a while longer.  It’s definitely not abnormal to see multiple fake breakouts in a Stage 1 base, that’s what wears people out until the real breakout happens.

What has been the biggest surprise of the year for you? Bitcoin comes to my mind.

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I’m simultaneously surprised and not surprised at all by what has happened to Bitcoin over the past year.  I am surprised by the amount of money that has poured into it, I never fathomed over 300 billion dollars would pour into this asset class.  It has also been a lesson for me because I made a fundamental judgement on Bitcoin back in 2012 that has kind of kept me out of being interested in trading it.  Basically I decided that I didn’t think it had any intrinsic value so it couldn’t be considered a real form of money.

What I should have done was just traded it like any other Stage 2 breakout and I could have captured the biggest winner of 2017.  I’ll definitely learn from that for the future.  What I find unsurprising is that humans have blown another bubble, we seem to love to blow bubbles periodically and this is yet another example.  In my lifetime I’ve already experienced the Internet bubble, the housing bubble, and huge parabolic moves in other assets like oil and uranium.  My lesson learned from Bitcoin is to just trade the chart like any other asset class and apply the Stage Analysis system.  It would have worked beautifully on this huge move in Bitcoin from 2015 until now.

Which sectors in 2017 have done well for you? And what lessons have you learnt from this?

I took some good profits on uranium stocks at the start of this year when they were exploding higher.  But I also let a few winners turn into losers, I used that as another learning experience.  Besides that I’ve done very well in tech stocks over the last three months of this year.  I’ve been discussing real trades I’m taking on my website since September and you can see some big winners I identified if you go back and look at some of my posts at www.nextbigtrade.com.

This has proved to me again that I have a system that I can trade any market with, and that’s a big advantage because every market goes in and out of favor.  I want to be always focused on the markets that are in favor, and in particular getting in early on new uptrends.

I think it’s interesting that certain elements of the trend analysis you follow are designed to be logical and non-emotional, that it’s based on a few key indicators that provide a guide, but that the market itself is emotional and irrational.  Do humans generally get in the way of winning trades and investments?

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Humans are wired to sell their winners short and let their losers run.  This is the exact opposite of winning trading.  This happens because most people have no system to trade the markets so they become a slave to their emotions or whatever biases they have, or they just follow a guru who has no system either.  You have to have a system that lets winners run and cuts losers short to be successful trading the markets, and I’ve found that using simple trend following like Stage Analysis is the easiest.

And as a final question, what are you looking forward to in 2018?

I’m looking forward to applying the Stage Analysis system to the markets again next year and seeing what markets that takes me into.  Or if we get a bear market next year I should be in cash and preserving my capital. Either way I will be trading what the market gives me.  One other thing I continue to focus on is position sizing since I think that is another great way to manage risk besides having a stop loss signal.

Checkout my new Stage Analysis Screening Tool at: http://screener.nextbigtrade.com

Checkout my trading videos on Youtube

Twitter: @nextbigtrade

The original article and much more can be found at: http://www.nextbigtrade.com

The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as investment advice. Please see the disclaimer.

Bitcoin Buying Panic Leaves A Dangerously Overextended Market

What’s interesting about the nature of markets is just when one side of the battle between buyers and sellers thinks they have it completely won, they are at their most vulnerable.  Bitcoin has gained over 100% since the start of October on top of an over 900% gain for the year 2017.  Since Bitcoin broke out into a Stage 2 advance in 2015 around $250 it is up over 40x.  Intoxicating gains that everyone is captivated by currently and wishes they could go back in time and capture.

The reality though is the best time to buy Bitcoin was back in 2015 and 2016 when few were talking about it and it was emerging out of a Stage 1 base.  Now everyone is talking about it and greed has taken over and the Stage 2 uptrend has gone into a breathtaking parabola.  Earlier today Bitcoin was more than 130% above it’s 30 week MA which is the most overbought it has been since this uptrend began in 2015.  Amazingly this is the third time in the last 6 months the price has stretched more than 100% above the MA, that is exceedingly rare for something with a market cap of over $150 billion.


For comparison purposes when Cisco Systems made its final parabolic move into the first quarter of 2001 during the Internet bubble it had a market cap of around $500 billion and only made it to 50% above its 30-week MA.

QUALCOMM reached a market cap of $100 billion during the same time period which is more similar to Bitcoin but was only able to get 150% above its 30-week MA, which is close to where Bitcoin is currently.

It’s impossible to tell where Bitcoin will top, or even if it does move lower from here, whether this area will be “the top”.  But it’s easy to say Bitcoin is the most overextended since this uptrend began because it is.  And Bitcoin has no price support in the chart  all the way back down to the $3000-$4000 area which is more than a 50% loss from here.

Checkout my new Stage Analysis Screening Tool at: http://screener.nextbigtrade.com

Checkout my trading videos on Youtube

Twitter: @nextbigtrade

The original article and much more can be found at: http://www.nextbigtrade.com

The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as investment advice. Please see the disclaimer.

Uranium Stocks Reawaken After Cameco Cuts Production

At the end of 2016 and the start of 2017 we saw an explosive breakout in the uranium miners, but that rally flamed out and the uranium market went back into a Stage 1 base.  After that failure from about May of this year until the last couple weeks the uranium miners drifted sideways and volume dried up, signalling disinterest in the sector but a general balance between buyers and sellers.  Recent news out of Cameco cutting 10% of world production in uranium caused a flurry of activity in the uranium miners and the price of uranium.

One of the most bullish aspects of the uranium miners that I haven’t seen discussed anywhere else is the positive divergence between the miners and the price of uranium that continues to this day.  Take a look at the charts of U.TO and URA below and notice how the uranium miners (URA) have put in 3 minor but important higher highs (denoted by the circles on the chart) at the same time the price of uranium (U.TO) was making lower lows.  Often this type of action is seen in market bottoms where further declines in the commodity fail to produce lower lows in the commodity producer.  This means the shares of the commodity producer have shifted into stronger hands, they are no longer willing to sell even if the underlying commodity continues to decline in price.  This is what leads to explosive Stage 2 breakouts because once demand comes back in there is literally no one left to sell, and the stocks start ripping higher.


U.TO took fairly good volume last week doing 3x average weekly volume.  The volume in URA was also over 2x average volume on the previous week.  The bigger the volume on a Stage 2 breakout the better, and if we continue to see increased volume in these over the next few weeks that’s a good sign.

I took initial positions in UEC, URG, and UUUU to play this potential new Stage 2 breakout in the uranium miners.  I’ll be watching the price action as always and using the 30-week moving average as my risk management line and indicator of whether to stay in the trade.

Checkout my new Stage Analysis Screening Tool at: http://screener.nextbigtrade.com

Checkout my trading videos on Youtube

Twitter: @nextbigtrade

The original article and much more can be found at: http://www.nextbigtrade.com

The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as investment advice. Please see the disclaimer.

Buying Stocks In A Strong Sector That Haven’t Broken Out Yet: Cannabis Edition

Cannabis stocks are on fire after TWMJF led off as the first stock to break out.  A hot sector can provide a lot of trading opportunities.  Instead of chasing the leaders in a sector you can often buy laggard stocks that will get pulled higher by the large amount of money pouring into the sector.  This works especially well with commodity sectors where all companies in a sector essentially produce the same product.

OGRMF and SPRWF are two good examples of this as I fired off a tweet about these stocks earlier today.  I bought them both in anticipation they would follow the leaders in the sector higher.

With both stocks you can see clear resistance and support levels just like the leading cannabis stocks, but they hadn’t broken above resistance yet.  Both stocks had great volume today and OGRMF had a nice consolidation at the high end of the range leading into today’s breakout.

Checkout my new Stage Analysis Screening Tool at: http://screener.nextbigtrade.com

Checkout my trading videos on Youtube

Twitter: @nextbigtrade

The original article and much more can be found at: http://www.nextbigtrade.com

The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as investment advice. Please see the disclaimer.

Cannabis Stocks Break Out Of A Year Long Consolidation

The three main cannabis stocks that I follow exploded higher on massive volume increases over the past couple of weeks.  Not only that but their recent moves busted them out of a year long consolidation in a very bullish manner.  All three of these stocks were 5 to 6 baggers in 2016, and spent about a year consolidating those massive gains.

Canopy Growth shown below broke out above 10 and has done over 4x average weekly volume the past two weeks.

Aphria is breaking out of the former highs in the 6 to 7 area on over 2.5x average weekly volume the past two weeks.

Aurora Cannabis has had a volume explosion over the past week doing over 5x average volume and breaking out above 2.5.

It’s important to note these stocks are all major Canadian cannabis producers with over a billion dollar market cap.  There are many more speculative cannabis related stocks that are nothing more than management teams with plans and dreams that may or may not turn into anything.

I’m long APHQF and ACBFF as of this writing.  I plan on doing follow up posts on this sector as this appears to be a major breakout that could last a while.

Checkout my new Stage Analysis Screening Tool at: http://screener.nextbigtrade.com

Checkout my trading videos on Youtube

Twitter: @nextbigtrade

The original article and much more can be found at: http://www.nextbigtrade.com

The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as investment advice. Please see the disclaimer.