Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been the biggest trade of 2017. In this video I take a look at Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin from a Stage Analysis perspective. Interestingly Bitcoin has been in a Stage 2 bull market ever since late 2015, but has only captured the attention of the media with its recent parabolic rise. Cryptocurrencies are now dangerously extended from their 30-week moving average and I discuss why that’s a warning sign for disciplined traders.
Gold and gold stocks are setting up a basing formation that will eventually resolve into a big move higher or lower. Sentiment in the gold market is bearish and the media is totally ignoring the gold market right now. Seasonally gold tends to make a major bottom around the end of June and the start of July. All that and more is discussed in the video below:
Here’s the full audio from the interview I did back in late May with Cris Sheridan of FinancialSense. This is by far the most in-depth interview I’ve done on the Stage Analysis Screener. I talk about how I use the screener for getting the current health and breadth of the market and finding top sectors using the screener. We also go into how the market has evolved since early 2016 with different market sectors taking leadership as the market has moved higher.
I still plan on releasing some videos at some point on the Stage Analysis Screener as I’ve discussed that in the past and I’ve had many people e-mail me about that. Thank you for your patience and for all the positive feedback I’ve received!
Happy Memorial Day to all NBT readers!
In this video I discuss the weak breadth that has occurred across the stock market since early March 2017. Weak breadth means that less stocks are participating in a market rally, which means that it’s harder to find a stock that’s outperforming the market. The market so far in 2017 has been led by large cap tech stocks and by the semiconductor industry groups that have been in strong Stage 2 uptrends since the middle of 2016.
In the second part of the video I go over the importance of not chasing overextended stocks that are far away from the 30-week moving average. This can lead to losses and occurs because traders lack discipline to wait for a better buy point after the stock has consolidated for a while.
Last Thursday I had a great opportunity to interview with Cris Sheridan of FinancialSense. In the interview we discussed the following:
- 2017 has been dramatically different than 2016 in terms of market leadership and breadth
- Currently the market is being led by semiconductors and large cap tech stocks
- Small caps continue to lag large cap stocks
- Commodities and cyclical stocks have performed the worst in 2017 after leading the markets last year
- Foreign stock markets are outperforming the S&P 500
Since early March I’ve been noting on Twitter that the breadth of this market has been weak and therefore it’s been much harder to find winning stocks this year than last year. This is definitely a stock picker’s market so far in 2017.