Next Big Trade In Search Of Bull Markets

30Jul/140

Tweets, Headlines, and Charts for 2014-07-29

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29Jul/140

It’s Not A Mania!

I heard Ron Insana from CNBC today say "It's Not a Mania" so you shouldn't be worried.  Thanks Ron.  You know what it is though is a Stage 3 potential top in the Russell Microcap Index.  That's not something you'll ever hear anyone on CNBC say.  Notice the momentum in the MACD is about to turn negative too, this hasn't happened since 2011 in this index.  If IWC can break below 70 things might start getting interesting on the downside.

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29Jul/140

Tweets, Headlines, and Charts for 2014-07-28

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28Jul/140

Gold Miners Set To Lead The Market

Gold miners are some of the best performing assets of 2014.  Not all gold miners are up big but I believe the laggards will join the leaders once gold breaks out definitively.  Gold mining ETFs are at the top of the ETF ranks this year.  If you plot GDX or GDXJ against SPY on a relative basis a key technical event is unfolding.  Gold miners are starting to hold the 50 day moving average on this relative chart and the 50 day is tightening with the 200 day moving average.  This is a very bullish formation and a break above the 200 day moving average would confirm leadership in the stock market for the gold stocks.

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28Jul/140

Tweets, Headlines, and Charts for 2014-07-27

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27Jul/140

Weekend Report

I'm separating the Stage Analysis Report from a separate weekend report for this week and may do that going forward.  This week I'd like to select some charts from different areas and provide some brief comments on them.

First off one of the shocking events of the week was Amazon's earnings report.  Amazon got punished severely on Friday after forecasting a big loss for its next earnings report.  Amazon gapped back below its 200 day moving average on super heavy volume.  Right now there's some fragmented leadership in technology stocks with Facebook and Apple making new highs but there are also plenty of stocks like Amazon acting erratic like they are not going higher anytime soon.

amzn

Gold has continued it's correction off of the $1340 level but had a big up day Friday.  Technically the gold stocks look awesome in my opinion as long as they hold the 200 day moving average.  Now the 50 day moving average is climbing above the 200, and volume continues to be impressive when gold stocks rally.  Notice that the March rally failed at the 200 day moving average.  This time GDXJ has been holding that level for a month while gold stocks work off their overbought condition.  I think this is super-bullish and the leading gold stocks are acting extremely well too.  There are still a lot of skeptics and scaredy-cats in the gold sector too which is music to a bull's ears.

gdxj

Twitter is an example of how weak the bounce has been since May in some of the former leading stocks.  This is a fragmented market unlike 2013 where everything went up strongly.  I personally think Twitter is going to go to the single digits, might be a good short candidate in a bear market.

twtr

The Russell 2000 has been acting weak all year.  This isn't a definitive bear signal, but something to pay attention too.  Just looking at the daily volume you can see a ton of high volume selling days.  Plus a head and shoulders pattern is potentially in play here.  The 108 level is one to watch if we get a break lower from there IWM would be in a potential head and shoulders breakdown.

iwm

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27Jul/140

Stage Analysis Report

For more information on Stage Analysis and how it's used check out this page.

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26Jul/140

Tweets, Headlines, and Charts for 2014-07-25

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25Jul/140

Tweets, Headlines, and Charts for 2014-07-24

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24Jul/140

Chinese ETF Makes Multi-Year Highs

I can't count how many times I've seen headlines saying the Chinese economy was doomed over the last few years.  Yet if you pull up a chart of FXI you simply observe a sideways bear market that is building a long term base.  Eventually China is going to break out of this base when no one is looking or cares, which could be now.  Most people have given up on China or are scared of it.  Most people would rather talk about Facebook or social media IPOs than a new bull market in China.

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24Jul/140

Here Are Your Leaders

One thing that I've been waiting for since the March correction in the market is the re-emergence of leading stocks making new highs.  We did have a rotation into energy, semiconductors, and utilities that helped power the market higher during the March-July time frame.  But certain market leaders, companies with new and game changing products needed to get back to making new highs to make this market healthy again.  This week we got some nice breakouts in UA, FB, and CMG and AAPL continued to make new highs as well.  For now those four horsemen are leading stocks that should help show the direction of the market.

There are plenty of stocks though that had huge moves in 2013 into early 2014 that are severely damaged and taking a long time to recover.  I'm talking about a lot of IPOs in the tech space like TWTR, FEYE, YELP, etc.  Many biotech stocks are still badly damaged, some are trying to make new highs again though like CELG and BIIB.  After hours tonight some big names are getting punished though like AMZN and NFLX has had a pretty serious drop since it's earnings report.

The point is there is some leadership coming back but there's still a lot of carnage taking place in certain stocks.  One other thing that I find interesting about the action in 2014 is the wide ranging volatility in some of these stocks over multiple months.  That action could be indicative of a bull market top if more stocks don't start making new highs.

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